|
中国人民银行工作论文No.2016/5 |
PBC Working Paper No.2016/5 |
|
2016年4月8日 |
April 8,2016 |
|
金融周期和金融波动如何影响经济增长与金融稳定? |
|
|
陈雨露马勇阮卓阳1 |
|
|
摘要：本文通过对全球68个主要经济体1981-2012年的面板数据进行实证分析，系统考察了金融周期和金融波动对经济增长与金融稳定的影响。实证结果表明，在金融高涨期和衰退期，经济增长率较低，同时容易爆发金融危机；相比之下，金融正常期的经济增长率更高，同时金融体系的稳定性也更强。这意味着，只有当金融周期处于相对平稳的正常状态时才有助于经济增长和金融稳定，反之，不论金融周期过热还是过冷，经济增长和金融稳定都会受到明显的负面影响。此外，无论金融周期处于何种阶段（高涨期、衰退期或正常期），金融波动的增加都伴随着更低的经济增长率和更高的金融危机发生概率，这意味着，金融波动的增加不仅会显著削弱一国的经济增长，同时还会导致金融体系的不稳定性明显上升。 |
|
|
Abstract:Based on dynamic panel data of 68 major economies overthe period of 1981-2012, this paper investigates the impact of financial cycle and financial volatility on economic growth and financial stability. The empirical results show that the boom and recession phases of the financial cycle are often associated with lower economic growth and higher probability of financial crisis. By comparison, in the normal phase of the financial cycle, economic growth is higher and the financial system is more stable. This indicates that both the overheating and overcooling of the financial system is harmful to economic growth and financial stability, and the reverse is true vice versa. In addition, no matter what phases the financial cycle is in, larger financial volatility is always associated with lower economic growth and higher probability of financial crisis, suggesting that the increase in financial volatility is harmful to both economic growth and financial stability. |
|
|
关键词：金融周期；金融波动；经济增长；金融稳定 |
|
|
声明：中国人民银行工作论文发表人民银行系统工作人员的研究成果，以利于开展学术交流与研讨。论文内容仅代表作者个人学术观点，不代表人民银行。如需引用，请注明来源为《中国人民银行工作论文》。 Disclaimer: The Working Paper Series of the People's Bank of China (PBC) publishes research reports written by staff members of the PBC, in order to facilitate scholarly exchanges. The views of these reports are those of the authors and do not represent the PBC. For any quotations from these reports, please state that the source is PBC working paper series. |
|
2016040818085153098.pdf
